Cisco predicts rapid growth of cloud traffic

Cisco published the fifth annual report of the Cisco Global Cloud Index (2014-2019) entitled "Global Cloud Development Index for the period from 2014 to 2019." In it, the company demonstrated modern volumes of cloud traffic, as well as traffic of data processing centers, which currently make up 2.1 and 3.4 GB respectively. Cisco made a forecast for the growth of global traffic in both directions and said that by the end of 2019 the volume of cloud traffic will increase fourfold and amount to 8.6 ST, outstripping the growth in data center traffic, which in the same period will be three times more than in the same period current moment and will be 10.4 ST. This jump is primarily due to the growth of active mobile devices, the increase in the popularity of cloud services, as well as the virtualization of private clouds, the density of tasks in which it constantly grows. Also, traffic growth is affected by machine-to-machine (M2M) interconnections.

"The global cloud development index" clearly demonstrates that the cloud from the regional trend is becoming a global mass decision, and over the next five years, cloud traffic will grow in all regions by more than 30% every year, "said Cisco's vice president of marketing solutions for service providers Doug Webster - Commercial and government structures are shifting from cloud testing to placing their critical tasks in. At the same time, consumers expect universal access on demand to services and ontentu. All this creates a lot of opportunities for cloud operators, who will play an increasingly important role in the ecosystem of the communications industry. "

According to Cisco, the Comprehensive Internet, that is, the connection of people, processes, data and objects, will have a significant impact on the growth of cloud traffic and data center traffic. By 2019, the annual traffic generated by various IoE-applications will reach 507.5 ST (42.3 GB per month). This is 49 times the forecast for 2019 on traffic for data centers (10.4 GB). Today, only a small part of this content is stored in data centers, but the situation may change with the growth of application requirements and the development of large data analytics (meaning the analysis of the accumulated data for making tactical and strategic decisions).

Today, 73% of the data stored on client devices is hosted on a PC. By 2019, 51% of such data will be stored on other devices - smartphones, tablets, M2M-modules, etc. According to Cisco forecasts, with the growth of volumes of stored data, the load of cloud user storages will grow. By 2019, 55% of Internet users in the residential sector will have personal cloud storage (in 2014, there were 42%). So, according to forecasts, by 2017 global smartphone traffic (201 EB per year) will exceed the amount of data stored on them (179 EB per year), which will lead to the need to expand the possibilities for data storage in the cloud.

As already mentioned, by the end of 2019 the annual global IP traffic of data centers will grow to 10.4 ST (in 2014 this figure was 3.4 GB).

According to forecasts, the annual global cloud traffic for the above-mentioned period will grow fourfold, from 2.1 GB (176 EB per month) in 2014 to 8.6 GB (719 EB per month by the end of 2019). In this case, its share in the total data center traffic by 2019 will exceed 83%.

It is expected that new technologies such as SDN and NFV will change the distribution of traffic in the data centers so that at the top levels (the core) volumes can drop to 10.4 GB per year, while the lower levels will transfer more than 40 MB annually.

• the distribution of cloud traffic by region: by 2019, the largest volume will be in North America (3.6 GB), the second place will be Asia-Pacific (2.3B), the top three will close the Western Europe (1.5ZB).
• distribution of data center traffic by region: by 2019, the largest volume will also be in North America (4.5 GB), the second place will be Asia-Pacific (2.7 GB), the third will be Western Europe (1.8 GB).
• data on other regions can be found on the Cisco website .

For comparison, 10.4 GB of traffic is:

• 144 trillion hours of streaming music - equivalent to approximately 26 months of continuous streaming of music to every inhabitant of the Earth in 2019 subject to a population of 7.6 billion people (according to the UN);
• 26 trillion hours of Web conferencing with webcams - equivalent to approximately 21 hours of daily web conferencing by all working populations in 2019;
• 6.8 trillion high definition movies (HD) viewed online - equivalent to approximately 2.4 hours of viewing per day of streaming HD video by all inhabitants of the Earth in 2019;
• 1.2 trillion hours of ultra-high resolution video streaming (UHD) - equivalent to approximately 1.4 hours of viewing per day of streaming UHD video by each family in 2019 (2.2 billion families worldwide by 2019).

Cisco says that by 2019:

• 55% or more of 2 billion individual Internet users will resort to personal cloud storage (a similar figure for 2014 - 42%, or 1.1 billion users);
• the global monthly cloud traffic per user will be 1.6 GB (in 2014 - 992 MB);
• the total data center load will more than double over the period under consideration, while the number of cloud tasks will more than triple over the same period;
• The density of tasks (the number of tasks per physical server) for cloud data centers will grow to 8.4;
• the world data volume generated by IoE connections will reach 507.5 ST per year (42.3 GB per month), in 2014 this figure was 134.5 ST per year (11.2 GB per month);
• "smart" city with a population of 1 million people will generate 180 million gigabytes of data a day.

Forecasts of the Global Cloud Development Index:

• in the period under consideration the number of tasks in public clouds will grow by 44% annually;
• By 2019, public cloud data centers will perform 56% of cloud tasks (in 2014, such tasks were 30%), ie, the annual growth for the period 2014-2019. will be 44%;
• By 2019, 44% of cloud tasks will be performed in private cloud data centers (in 2014 this figure was 70%), i.e., the annual decrease for this period will be 16%.
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• The most popular service model in private and the most widespread in public clouds by 2019 will be the "software as a service" model (Software-as-a-Service, SaaS). By 2019:
  • According to the SaaS model, 59% of all cloud tasks will be performed (in 2014 - 45%);
  • Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) will perform 30% of all cloud tasks (in 2014 - 42%);
  • By 2019, Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) will perform 11% of all cloud tasks (in 2014 - 13%).
  To estimate the readiness for cloud computing, based on global fixed and mobile network testing data, medians and mean delay times and download and unload speeds were calculated in 150 countries:
  • In the current year, the criterion of one advanced application for mobile networks was 81 countries (last year only 21 countries);
  • In the current year, the criteria for one advanced application for fixed networks corresponded to 119 countries (in the past year, 109 countries);
  • requirements for basic cloud applications: download speed up to 750 kbit / s, download speed up to 250 kbit / s, delay time - more than 160 ms;
  • requirements for mid-tier cloud applications: download speed - 751-2 500 kbit / s, download - 251-1 000 kbit / s, delay time - 159-100 ms;
  • requirements for advanced cloud applications: download speed - more than 2,500 kbit / s, download - more than 1,000 kbps, delay time - less than 100 ms.